Toronto Photography Meetup Group

Post your estimates here.

(The smiley is just because it's fun to guess about the future; when film finally dies, of course it'll be )

I heard from someone at Blacks the estimate of "about ten years," as in, by then you just won't be able to get 35 mm film anywhere at any price (from a retailer). But maybe that is too optimistic. (And anyway, it was just a junior employee.)

Whaddaya think?

Indefinite for B&W. It benefits from having already become a niche product and it's easy & cheap to process at home, removing the major weak point for colour films, access to processing.

Probably not more than 10 years for E-6 processing, which will likely kill production.

C-41 is a crapshoot. Consumer sales are tanking due to Cell Phone cameras killing off the disposable market, which was the last real market for consumer C-41. That said, similar reductions in Pro and semi-pro oriented film are not occurring and it could remain in production indefinitely. I expect that with the introduction of films like Ektar 100, C-41 will slowly cannibalize the E-6 market, leaving a small but profitable colour film market.

How many years for Super-8 film?
How many years for VHS videotape (I bought one yesterday, even though I normally use PVR)?
How many years for records (they're making a comeback)?

Then again, try to buy a blank open reel or 8-track tape, not to mention a CRT computer monitor.

Actually, there have been so many photographic mediums that were popular in their day but are no more, film will only be the latest (now if we could only get rid of the bayer sensor).

Retailer as in a walk-in brick and mortar store, or online/mail-order?

As far as chain stores goes, my guess is maybe less than 10 years. I can see Henry's, Vistek and Downtown Camera carrying film as a boutique or niche product. Henry's might even have it only at their main store downtown.

In the online/mail-order world, B&W will carry on for quite a while. Manufacturing the base for film might be an issue if some of the eastern European and Chinese factories get shutdown/destroyed (natural disaster/war etc).

The current economic situation might do more to shutdown film than any other factor.

B&W will be there as long as people use it. Slide is more or less dead or dieing has we speak. Colour negatives 3 years until it is dead in all the chain stores. This will concentrate all the development in the small pro labs, which in turn will create a niche market for at least 30 years. Places like kodak and fuji will have one automated factory producing a world supply of "pro" films. It will be hobbyists not pros that will be using these services.

If you ever get a chance go negatif + in Paris. There is a continuous flow of film customers of all ages, enthusiasm of that type doesn't die out and the world is largest enough that the numbers will still exist to make a good business case.

Take Kodachrome it represents a tiny niche in the film market. Expensive to develop with only one lab doing it in N. American yet it still has a year to live before it disappears.

Take Polaroid if digital replaces one film it should be instant films yet people are trying to revive it and Fuji still sells instant film and new instant cameras.

Of course this is just a guess on my part and vintage cameras will never be as sexy a market as the multi-billion vintage automobile market even if gasoline will be obsolete in 30 years.

Film isn't dead yet? I think I have an old roll lying next to my slinky.

For me, film died in December 2005 in the remote Simien mountains of northern Ethiopia. There I encountered a hiker with a Canon 30D and a laptop. What I saw he was capable of doing (all the while looking at the bags of film I had to carry) I decided to abandon film forever.....when I returned to Canada with my 100+ rolls, I paid my last film/print processing fee....

Film is definately not going to die anytime soon. As Metrix has said, certain types of films will outlive others. Although I truly hope slidefilm doesn't die anytime soon, as its my favourite. I shoot nothing but slide film these days. I just got a huge bag of film, and I am buying a better film camera. You'll probably see me shooting 50% digital and 50% film this year.. Digital does have its advantages... but there is nothing like the look and feel of film.

As long as Dollarama sells film, my Mom will keep buying it there.

(with cash, not with one of those debit cards she doesn't have)

To what extent is the motion picture industry keeping film "alive"?

Volume wise, they are still by far the largest consumer of film.

$$$ wise, they are not any more. About a year ago, I noticed that the Kodak annual report showed consumer sales dollars as higher than the motion picture industry.

Digital is making huge in-roads here as well, with more and more feature "films" being shot on digital movie cameras - not camcorders.

Agreed! (From a fellow silde enthusiast.)

Yes, I was also wondering about this. If the motion picture industry goes digital, does that (automatically) imply the death of film for still photography?

(On a side note, I shouldn't have emphasized the issue of what-retailers-carry; the question is when will the manufacturers stop manufacturing it.)

As usual, an apt reference can be found in The Simpsons -- in this case, from the flashback-clips show hosted by Troy McClure. He explained that the Simpson family will continue to have their weekly adventures "until the show is no longer profitable."

The Hollywood type film's being made are still mostly being shot on traditional film for the most part. Minus the George Lucas's in the crowd who are shooting with ultra fine resolution HD camera's.

A lot of independant film makers are using HD video to make films now, and editing them on final cut, et al.

But, believe it or not -- there is still a core number of film makers learning the art of shooting in 16mm and 35mm at organization such as LIFT (The Liason Of Independant Film Makers in Toronto), which my company is a member of. I have actually wanted to take some of the courses, as they have some really nifty gadgets over there.

Now here's a question for the masses.... which company do you think would be the "last man standing" if film does ever actually die. My guess is that Fuji will be last to produce film, as they are the only manufactorer currently producing pack film after the death of Polaroid. Just a theory, what do you think?

Jump down to the bottom to see a list of major releases shot in digital http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_cinematography

It's interesting to note that "Crank 2" was shot on Canon XH-A1's and HF10's. The HF10 is a consumer camera, and the XH-A1 is less than CDN$5k.

In digital cinema, HD 1920x1080 is fairly close to the 2K standard, but the 4K standard has 4 times the resolution of HD. This is what the Red camera is about.

The coming year will see some major shakeup's in the video/indie-film world, the 5Dm2 and GH1 are major game changers for guys at the low end.

Yes and No -- people who know video, will not shoot an independant feature on a 5DMkII. There is no replacement for a real HD Video camera.

Ilford. They're the only major still film manufacturer that relies solely on the only stable still-only market, B&W film. They don't do any motion-picture, slide or colour stuff and that's where the risk is.

From what I'm hearing, they're actually seeing a slow rise in B&W sales.

I talked to downtown camera and they said there volume E6 is pretty steady. So as long as people keep using it may live. I think that Kodak is positioning it's new Ektar 100 as a replacement for slide film as they are anticipating closing of more E6 processing lines.

But I JUST got into film! I guess I'll be one of the people trying to keep it alive.

Shoppers at Yonge and King say they're processing around 75 rolls a day. That ain't bad.

me too!

if film isn't so expensive and inconvenient (ie. processing)
I would be shooting film instead

someone needs to invent some (cheap) re-exposable films that can be processed by easily.

Before we have this new technology, I guess I will have to stick with my old school digital camera which I only pay for the electricity it uses.

That is more than I would have expected.

It aint going down anytime soon. film has it's place and will have a place even in 35mm as long as digital cameras don't have the ability to gracefully overexpose photos (which most don't, except maybe the fuji SX series OR Canons latest super expensive 1DIII or 1DsIII which have expanded highlights).

Anyways let's also not forget all the medium format shooters, Unless everyone can get medium format digital backs, film is probably still king there.

Hey, Don't forget about those of us still shooting 4x5 too..... I am dropping off 17 E6 4x5 slides to be developed at TIW this coming thursday.

You may be able to get film for the next 20 years, but the chemicals may run out. There is a move to legislation to slow down and eventually cease production of chemicals in certain categories in North America as part of the new LEEd programs implemented.

Last I checked, high Alcaline bases like film emulsions (wet state) and fixers are among them.

You can always mix your own. There's enough resources available for that already.

True for BW more than colour, especially slides with critical temperature and stirring attention requirements. I have shot one single roll of film since my first digital in 1999, but what I hear from older friends who still use film for the most part, while developer and fix /bleach are not that hard to make up, the stabilizers they have concocted may or may not produce a lasting result.

Still, a process for only a few afficionados IMO.

Could you clarify/provide more info?

There are tons of professionals still shooting film, film is not going away anytime soon. In New York city, apparently they are shooting film like its going out of style - pardon the reference!

kodachrome is definitely going away.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-k ... 5640.story